In short, how can aspiring cultural entrepreneurs navigate and exploit the opportunities created by future trends? Do we catch and exploit trends – and if so, how? – or, as the creative powerhouse of society, should culture institutions be creating them?
I would argue that there are broadly two types of relationship between cultural entrepreneurs and future trends. Firstly, some cultural entrepreneurs are ‘trend creators’, seeking to develop the next major idea and thereby lead consumer opinion and value judgements. The role of the entrepreneur and institution is to make a market for the outputs created. In the words of one entrepreneur, “I hope that every instance of what we do gives people a taste and desire to experience that more.”
Trend creators
Everyone seems to want to come up with the next big idea. We always second guess, listen, offer advice, fertilise new thinking. Such ‘trend creators’ inhabit the ‘fringe’ of Matthews and Wacker’s model, which charts an evolutionary path from the ‘fringe’ to ‘social convention’, via ‘edge’, ‘realm of cool’, and ‘next big thing’.
‘Trend creating’ entrepreneurs may be more or less receptive to bringing their ‘fringe’ innovations to the main marketplace; ‘artisan’-type entrepreneurs may prefer to leave the process of commodification to larger commercial organisations. Resource limitations may determine just how real a choice this is for them to make. Whilst small enterprises are typically regarded as the key innovators within the creative industries, Bjorkegren describes an ‘innovation’ cycle in which small firms innovate and large firms imitate, until the trend is exhausted and the cycle starts over again. At one point in the cycle, the innovators enjoy a brief period of dominance before the imitators overtake them. Significantly for us, Bilton argues that this innovation cycle appears to be getting shorter.
Trend catchers
Other opportunities for cultural entrepreneurship arise through ‘trend catching’, which is more concerned with identifying and profiting from future trends, and uses the forecasted direction of public opinion as security for implementing an idea.
To be effective at this, it is imperative to spot trends, and see whether you can ‘ride’ it. In practical terms, we strongly advocate an international outlook, informally keeping an eye on what’s going on around the world, and seeing what concepts are working. Looking to other sectors beyond not-for-profit culture is also highly recommended; the creative industries offer reasonably straightforward similarities as a starting point.
In the terms of Gladwell’s ‘Tipping Point’ theory, cultural entrepreneurs with heightened awareness act as Mavens, naturally obsessed with data and discovering new ideas. Incidentally, the nature of the cultural and creative sectors mean that they also often act as Connectors, spreading the message through ‘weak ties’ in many worlds, subcultures and niches.
For such entrepreneurs to succeed, Storey observes that entrepreneurs must not only be gifted at “locating the boat in fast flowing rivers”, but must anticipate the next wave of opportunity and prepare the crew in the right position on the boat to take advantage of it as it passes. Preparation and understanding are as important as identifying future trends. The entrepreneur must identify a trend at the right stage of its lifecycle if it is to be fully utilised.
